The Global Stocktake: Five-Year Cycle Explained

Susana Paola Navas
Jan 3
4 min read

If every country determines its own climate target under the Paris Agreement, how do we know if the sum of those efforts is enough to limit warming to 1.5°C? This is a central question that sits at the heart of climate diplomacy.

The answer is the Global Stocktake (GST) mechanism, which is meant to close the gap between national pledges and the global 1.5C pathway. Every five years, the world take stock of collective progress and assesses whether we are on track. The findings then inform the next round of NDC revisions, creating a ratcheting cycle of increasing ambition.

This is the third and final post in our series exploring the mechanisms to accelerate climate action. Having unpacked the UNFCCC´s Party-driven process and the Paris Agreement´s architecture of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), here we are exploring how the Global Stocktake works, why it matters, and why understanding it is essential.

What Is the Global Stocktake? Paris Agreement Five-Year Cycle

Mandate by Article 14 of the Paris Agreement, the Global Stocktake serves as the official report card for the planet's climate efforts.

It happens every five years and asks three critical questions:

Where are we? What is the current state of emissions, adaptation efforts, support provided and equity?
How did we get here? What strategies have been effective, which have fallen short, and why.
How do we get to where we need to be? What needs to change in the next five-year cycle to align global action with the 1.5°C goal.

There is an explicit mandate:

… assesses progress “considering mitigation, adaptation, and the means of implementation and support, and in light of equity and the best available science”

The GST does not just measure numbers. It measures against scientific necessity (what IPCC says we need) and equity principles (is burden-sharing fair across developed and developing nations?)

COP28 Global Stocktake: Off Track for 1.5°C

The first-ever Global Stocktake concluded in December 2023 at COP28, delivering the following findings:

On Mitigation:

Current NDCs put us on track for 2.5 - 2.9°C warming by 2100.
To limit warming to 1.5°C, global emissions need to peak now and fall 43% by 2030
Current policies will deliver 55-56% fall in emissions needed for 1.5°C pathway
Verdict: we are off track.

On Adaptation

Adaptation finance is $25-30 billion/year. Developing countries estimate need at $300+ billion/year.
Observed climate impacts are accelerating faster than adaptation capacity.
Loss and damage are occurring in vulnerable nations with minimal adaptive capacity.
Verdict: Adaptation is underfunded

On Means of Implementation & Support:

Climate finance commitment fall short, developed nations have not et $100B/year goal.
Technology transfer is slower. Many developing countries can not access green energy tech at affordable cost.
Capacity-building is lacking in Least Developing Countries to implement climate policy.
Verdict: Support mechanisms are inadequate

How the Global Stocktake is Governed: Structure Through Subsidiary Bodies

To ensure findings of the GST are accepted globally and not dismissed as biased, its´s governance is carefully structured to build legitimacy.

Its design prevents the process from being an instrument for powerful nations to impose their will and instead build trust across the Global North-South divide.

Key elements of this architecture include:

Formal Authority: The CMA (the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement), which includes all 198 Parties, holds ultimate authority.
Support Bodies: Two permanent subsidiary bodies provide technical and operational support:
- Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)
- Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI)
Co-facilitator Model: The technical assessment is led by tow co-facilitators, one from a developed country and one from a developing country. Ensuring balanced perspectives.
High-Level Committee: for the final political phase, this committee, co-chaired by the co-facilitators, lead deliberations on implications and policy direction

NDC Ratchet Mechanism: Global Stocktake Feedback Loop

The most crucial function of the GST is to create a feedback loop that drives the “ratchet mechanism” of the Paris Agreement. This five-year cycle is designed to ensure ambition consistently increases over time through a clear, repeating sequence:

Science → GST findings → political guidance → NDC revision → implementation → assessment → repeat.

Does it work perfectly? No. Some countries use the GST finding to claim they are already doing enough. Others use them to lobby for delayed action. Fossil fuel industries push back.

Conclusion: Understanding the System Enables Influence

This three-part series has explored the interconnected architecture of the UN climate system:

From the Party-driven process that ensure legitimacy (Post 1)
to the flexible NDCs that allow for universal participation (Post 2)
to the GST feedback loop that drives progress (Post 3)

These components form a system designed to gradually increase global ambition. Although is not a perfect system, because It could be slow, have loopholes, it is though created to provided structural pressure for improvement, grounding in political negotiations in scientific reality, and providing regular opportunities for course correction.

Our role, as climate professional is to understand this machinery and identify where leverage exists.

For example:

You want to influence you country´s next climate plan? The GST findings are your evidence.
You want to advocate for stronger adaptation finance? The GST´s assessment of financial gaps is your tool.

This system is designed to work on our favor If we understand how to use it.

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